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Shabir JawahirCommercial strategy & analytics
A leading e-commerce brand in Sri Lanka05

Financial Forecast and Investment Strategy

Connected revenue, cost, profitability and funding needs in a financial model for a Sri Lankan e-commerce brand, with three scenarios and an investment narrative grounded in stated assumptions.

3

Scenarios, all disclosed

  • Financial Modelling
  • Forecasting
  • Investment

Context

Growth plans, cost assumptions and funding requirements were maintained separately, making it difficult to assess how they changed together.

The problem

Questions about downside risk or capital needs required new calculations and could produce inconsistent answers.

Analysis

  1. 01Historical performance reconstructed into a clean base for projection.
  2. 02Revenue, margin, cost and cash modelled on linked assumptions, so one input change flows through the whole model.
  3. 03Conservative, base and expansion cases built with assumptions stated openly rather than buried in formulas.
  4. 04Sensitivity run on the two or three assumptions that genuinely move valuation, and reported rather than hidden.

Recommendation

Present the base case alongside the downside and expansion cases. Show the assumptions that drive funding requirements and valuation, and make their sensitivity easy to review.

Example view

Illustrative presentation of the approach. Client data remains confidential.

Long Range Forecast

Illustrative figures
3Cases, all disclosed

The downside case makes funding needs and performance risk visible alongside the base projection.

Implementation

  • Long term forecast model
  • Three case scenario model
  • Revenue and profitability projections
  • Funding requirement analysis
  • Investor facing narrative

Outcome

A clearer investment proposition, supported by connected financial projections, visible assumptions and scenario analysis.

What this demonstrates

  • Financial forecasting
  • Strategic finance
  • Scenario planning
  • Commercial storytelling

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